Forecasts for the 2026 runs of spring and summer Chinook salmon and winter steelhead into the Columbia River are coming in lower than last year’s actual returns for each of the stocks, according to a joint state and tribe stock status report.

The report released by Oregon, Washington and tribal fish and wildlife staffs is a compilation of 2025 returns of Chinook, winter and summer steelhead, sockeye salmon and shad to the Columbia River Basin, as well as 2025 recreational, commercial and tribal harvest totals.

The report also includes 2026 forecasts for Columbia and Willamette river spring and summer Chinook, winter steelhead and sockeye. The summer steelhead, fall Chinook and coho forecasts are not yet available, and the shad run, an introduced species to the Columbia, is not forecasted.

On the 2025 harvest side, all harvests – commercial, recreational and tribal – were within Endangered Species Act and Columbia River management guidelines, and commercial harvests in the lower Columbia River select areas were above the 10-year average, according to the findings in the report.

Spring Chinook Returns
Some 154,703 upriver spring Chinook (those adults that originate from tributaries upstream of Bonneville Dam) returned to the Columbia in 2025. Last year’s preseason forecast was 20 lower at 122,500 fish, according to the two-state Columbia River Compact’s Winter Fact Sheet No. 5b released Feb. 11 (Fact sheet).

The total number of spring Chinook that entered the river’s mouth last year was an estimated 252,502 (the preseason forecast was for 217,500 fish). That includes both upriver and downriver fish (those adults that originated from tributaries downstream of Bonneville). The highest return was in 2001 when well over 500,000 spring Chinook entered the river, according to the joint state report.

To break the return down even further, some 22,193 spring Chinook (preseason forecast was 21,500) and 4,002 natural origin spring Chinook (preseason forecast was 2,200) headed to the upper Columbia River, while 82,973 spring/summer Chinook (preseason forecast was 56,200) and 12,864 natural origin spring/summer Chinook (preseason forecast was 9,800) headed into the Snake River. The lower

Columbia River saw 97,799 spring Chinook (preseason forecast was 95,000).
Slightly fewer upriver spring Chinook are expected this year, with a pre-season forecast of 147,300 fish. That’s about a 5 percent decline from the last year’s actual return. Spring Chinook enter the Columbia from February through June. Most wild spring Chinook entering the

Columbia River are listed under the federal Endangered Species Act.
Returning Age-3 fish are considered jacks and adults are ages 4, 5 and 6. Generally, the older the returning fish, the larger. The age-5 fish that enter the river early, mid-February through March, are headed to lower river tributaries. They reach peak abundance in late March, the report says.

The smaller Age-4 fish enter in increasing numbers after mid-March, reaching peak abundance during April or early May.
Upriver spring Chinook of all ages returning to areas upstream of Bonneville Dam begin entering the Columbia River in substantial numbers after mid-March and generally reach peak abundance at the dam in late April to mid-May, the status report says.

The two-state Columbia River Compact this week set commercial spring and summer Chinook gillnetting periods in the lower Columbia select areas of Youngs Bay, Blind/Knappa Slough, Tongue Point and Deep River. The Compact will set a recreational spring Chinook season at its hearing Feb. 19.

The Compact this week also set one-day periods for white sturgeon retention in the Bonneville and The Dalles pools. Both are set for Feb. 16.

See the Feb. 11 Compact Action Notice at Columbia River Action Notice.

Willamette River Spring Chinook Returns
Some 50,237 spring Chinook entered Oregon’s Willamette River last year, very similar to the preseason forecast of 51,200 fish. Of those, 40,582 were of hatchery origin. The preseason forecast for hatchery fish was for 36,600 fish. About 10,000 of the returning fish were of natural origin. Wild Willamette River spring Chinook are listed under the ESA as threatened.

The 2026 preseason forecast for Willamette spring Chinook is 43,700 fish with 32,000 of those fish of hatchery origin. That low forecast had the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife late last year announcing that the forecast for returning hatchery fish this year does not meet a minimum return threshold that would allow recreational anglers a two-rod per boat validation. A minimum return of 34,000 adult hatchery fish is typically needed to collect enough broodstock for the two-rod validation, ODFW said.

–See CBB, December 19, 2025, No Two-Rod License This Year For Willamette River Salmon Fishing, Spring Chinook Forecast Doesn’t

Meet Minimum Return Threshold, No Two-Rod License This Year For Willamette River Salmon Fishing, Spring Chinook Forecast Doesn’t Meet Minimum Return Threshold – Columbia Basin Bulletin

Summer Chinook
Summer Chinook are destined for tributaries and hatcheries upstream of Priest Rapids Dam in the mid-Columbia River. Chinook that pass Bonneville Dam June 16 through Aug. 31 are considered summer Chinook. They are not listed under the ESA and are considered a healthy population, according to the joint status report.

The actual return of upper Columbia River summer Chinook in 2025 was 43,642 fish. The 2025 preseason forecast was 38,000 fish. The 2026 pre-season forecast is 41,000 fish, a drop of 6 percent from 2025’s actual return.

Winter Steelhead
Some 17,445 wild winter steelhead entered the Columbia River during the 2024-2025 run year, spot on with the preseason forecast of 17,440 fish. The preseason forecast for the 2025-2026 run is nearly unchanged, with 17,400 fish expected.
Columbia River wild winter steelhead enter the river November through April and spawn in tributaries March through June. All are ESA-listed as threatened, except those within the Southwest Washington Distinct Population Segment.

Summer Steelhead
The return of summer steelhead to Bonneville Dam in 2025 was 155,013 fish, which was far higher than the preseason forecast of 67,400 fish. The 2026 forecast was not available at the time this report was finalized.

The Columbia River’s summer run of steelhead run is made up of populations originating from both lower river and upper river tributaries, the report says. They enter the Columbia River from April through October, but most of the run enters from late June to mid-September.

Sockeye Salmon
The actual return of sockeye salmon to the Columbia River mouth in 2025 was 167,549 fish, a steep drop from the 2025 preseason forecast of 350,200. The 2026 preseason forecast is for 274,900 sockeye to return to the river’s mouth. The fish migrate into the Columbia and upstream in June and July, with peak passage about July 1.

Snake River sockeye are listed as endangered under the federal ESA, while all other sockeye that enter the Columbia are not listed. Just 1,268 Snake River sockeye made it to Lower Granite Dam on the lower Snake River in 2025. The preseason forecast was 3,100, more than twice the actual run. The 2026 preseason forecast for Snake River sockeye is 3,300 fish.

Most sockeye that enter the river’s mouth head into the upper Columbia River, but all individual runs in 2025, with the exception of the run into Oregon’s Deschutes River, were below preseason forecasts.

The Okanogan River saw 101,551 fish last year, while the preseason forecast was a much higher 248,000 fish. The 2026 preseason forecast is for 184,000 returning fish. The Wenatchee River actual run in 2025 was 63,716 fish (preseason forecast was 94,000), while the 2026 preseason forecast is for 85,200 fish.

American Shad
Shad are an introduced species brought to the West Coast from Pennsylvania in the late 19th century, the report says. Shad enter the Columbia from mid-May through early August at Bonneville Dam, with peak daily counts occurring in June. The 2025 minimum shad run size was 3.6 million fish.

The report, “2026 JOINT STAFF REPORT: STOCK STATUS AND FISHERIES FOR SPRING CHINOOK, SUMMER CHINOOK, SOCKEYE, STEELHEAD, AND OTHER SPECIES” can be found at table of contents, etc for joint staff. It was produced by the Joint Columbia River Management Staff, which includes the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, the Columbia River Intertribal Fish Commission, Nez Perce Tribe, Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation, Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation of Oregon and Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakima Nation. It was released Feb. 2, 2026.

Harvest – Commercial Fisheries
Commercial fisheries had big harvests last year. The harvest during winter, spring and summer seasons in 2025 in the Youngs Bay Select Area site was 10,829 Chinook, 34 percent higher than 10-year average (2015–2024) of 8,094 fish. The commercial harvest in the Blind/Knappa Slough sites was 7,022 Chinook, 2.6 times greater than the 10-year average of 2,728 fish. The commercial harvest in the Tongue Point/South Channel sites was 1,703 spring Chinook, greater than the 10-year average of 1,387 fish. Harvest in the Deep River site was 32 Chinook, which was just 39 percent of the 10-year average of 73 fish, ranging from 21 fish in 2017 to 204 fish in 2015.
There were no mainstem commercial fisheries during the spring or summer seasons in 2025, but the lower Columbia was open to commercial shad fishing. Some 813 shad (2,220 pounds) were landed in 2025.

Harvest – Recreational Fisheries
The 2025 spring-season Chinook fishery was open from Buoy 10 to Bonneville Dam during January and February and under temporary regulations from March 1 – April 6. The fishery was then reopened April 11–13, April 15–17, and May 9 – June 15, the report says.
The total catch downstream of Bonneville was 11,662 adult spring Chinook (10,086 kept and 1,576 released), 1,023 spring Chinook jacks (852 kept and 171 released) and 984 steelhead (651 kept and 333 released) from 90,201 angler trips.

Fishery-related mortalities to upriver spring Chinook (kept catch plus release mortality) in the lower Columbia spring recreational fishery was 7,411 adult Chinook, or 89 percent of the catch balance guideline allowed in the U.S. v. Oregon Management Agreement. The impact rate to ESA-listed upriver spring Chinook was 0.55 percent compared to the allocated rate of 0.83 percent.

The spring fishery from Bonneville upstream to the Oregon/Washington border was open from April 1 to 26, May 10, May 13, and May 22-June 15. Catch estimates for adult Chinook are 913 kept (403 released) from 8,303 angler trips. ESA impacts associated with this fishery totaled 0.085 percent, or slightly more than half the 0.155 percent post-season impact allocation for this fishery.

The lower Columbia summer Chinook fishery was not initially planned to be open in the mainstem downstream of Priest Rapids Dam based on the low preseason forecast, but was opened in-season during July 12–19 between the Astoria-Megler Bridge and Bonneville Dam.

Retention of sockeye was initially open from June 22 – July 6 and reopened July 12–31, and retention of hatchery steelhead was open June 16 – July 31.

The summer season harvest was 1,191 adult summer Chinook (461 kept and 730 released), 6,079 summer steelhead (2,800 kept and 3,279 released) and 920 sockeye (883 kept and 37 released) from 27,993 angler trips.

Summer Chinook fisheries were opened in-season July 12–19 from Bonneville Dam upstream to Priest Rapids Dam. Sockeye retention was allowed in this area from July 12–31. No adult summer Chinook were kept and 184 released, no steelhead were kept and 41 released, and 2,147 sockeye were kept and 36 released from about 7,300 angler trips.

The recreational summer fishery upstream of Priest Rapids Dam was also initially closed for Chinook retention but opened in-season from July 14 – August 1 for hatchery Chinook; catch estimates (including tributaries) were 1,101 Chinook kept with 400 released from about 10,446 angler trips; additionally, 9,973 sockeye were kept (4 released) and no steelhead released.

The Willamette River downstream of Willamette Falls opened for retention of hatchery spring Chinook Jan. 1. The recreational harvest was 7,942 jack and adult spring Chinook (kept and release mortalities). The harvest was 15.2 percent of the total return, which is higher than the recent 5-year average of 14.7 percent.

Harvest upstream of Willamette Falls for hatchery spring Chinook opened under permanent regulations Jan. 1. Harvest of spring Chinook was 3,857 fish.

Harvest of spring Chinook in Oregon’s Sandy River was 441 fish.

Washington’s Cowlitz, Kalama and Lewis rivers opened Jan. 1 for hatchery spring Chinook. Total harvest was 5,056 hatchery adult spring Chinook (kept and release mortalities): 2,236 fish were from the Cowlitz, 1,145 from the Kalama and 1,675 from the Lewis. The combined hatchery adult spring Chinook harvest rate in these fisheries was 24.9 percent, compared to the recent 10-year average of 23.0 percent.
Harvest of adult Chinook in the lower Snake River (Washington waters) was 768 clipped kept plus 164 unclipped fish and three clipped fish released. ESA impacts were 0.131 percent of the 0.202 percent ESA-impact allocation for this fishery.

Harvest — Treaty Indian Fisheries
Harvest during the spring was 2,225 spring Chinook in the Zone 6 Ceremonial and Subsistence permit gillnet fishery, 7,424 spring Chinook in the Zone 6 platform and hook-and-line fisheries, and 520 Chinook in the permit hook-and line fisheries downstream of Bonneville Dam. Total harvest of upriver spring Chinook was 10,169 fish out of 12,840 allowed under the terms of the Management Agreement.

During the summer Zone 6 platform and hook-and-line fishery 7,964 summer Chinook were harvested. Some 7,870 sockeye were caught in the Zone 6 platform/hook-and-line and commercial gillnet fisheries.
285 upriver Skamania stock summer steelhead were harvested in spring season fisheries in the Bonneville Pool from April 1 – June 15 and summer-season fisheries from June 16–30 with 60 harvested in The Dalles and John Day pools. The summer season A-/B-Index steelhead harvest was 1,469 fish. Harvest in tributaries outside of the Snake Basin was 3,268 Chinook.

For background, see:
— CBB, February 25, 2025, Columbia River Harvest Managers Set Early Season Spring Chinook Fishing Dates For Run Expected To Be Below Average, https://columbiabasinbulletin.org/columbia-river-harvest-managers-set-early-season-spring-chinook-fishing-dates-for-run-expected-to-be-below-average/